I am pleased to announce that two of the tools that ASARC has been working on over this spring and summer are now released to the public.

The first is Arfi, the Avalanche Research Forecasting Interface. It collects many items such as webcams, weather stations, and models into one map-driven interface for Canadian avalanche information. It is currently in Beta and will be for the season 2010-2011. Supported browsers are Firefox and Chrome.

The second is GSWarm, a GIS map based implementation of the warming model SWarm. You can see warming projected over real terrain with shading. Currently Rogers Pass is released, with other areas coming soon. Terrain overlays work in Firefox and Chrome.

Although they are currently being hosted on this site (thesnowpit.com) this may soon change. So, please use the links above which re-direct via www.ucalgary.ca/asarc as these are permanent links.

Enjoy. Feedback welcome.

In a trend that field workers have been noticing intuitively, Hartmut Aumann of JPL and NASA has linked global warming to an increase in severe storms.

This study focuses on the formation of very high cloud cover which then, in turn, relates to the formation of severe storms. Science Daily says:

For every degree Centigrade (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) increase in average ocean surface temperature, the team observed a 45-percent increase in the frequency of the very high clouds. At the present rate of global warming of 0.13 degrees Celsius (0.23 degrees Fahrenheit) per decade, the team inferred the frequency of these storms can be expected to increase by six percent per decade.

This study corroborates another similar study by Wentz et al which studied rainfall more directly and came to the conclusion that rainfall was increasing by 1-3 percent per year.

With the rain having been nearly continuously lashing my windows down here in Los Angeles,you're getting back-to-back history reports. Yee-haw.... Some are calling it the fifty-year storm, San Francisco has declared a state of emergency, Santa Cruz received almost 8" of water (yes, that's eight inches) from this storm alone, the Sierras are experiencing snowfall of 2-3 inches of snow per hour, and it just keeps coming. Mammoth's report at close today captures it from the skier's point of view:

Snow Report - Updated: Jan 6, 2008 4:53 PM

The snow just keeps coming down here in Mammoth. Since the resort closed last night, Mammoth received about 2 more feet of fluffy powder bringing our storm total to 5-7 feet. Yes I said that correctly, 5-7 feet of snow. Forecasts call for another 1-2 feet to fall today and even more to fall Monday through Thursday. Now is definitely the time to break out the powder skis or board and get some faceshots at Mammoth Mountain.

NOAA's IR from January 6

Below, you can see the story continue with NOAA's IR from late Jan 6. Southern California is getting quite obviously pummeled, and the front of the storm moving over the midwestern US has stayed half-stationary (south), half-occluded (north) and hasn't moved all that much over the past day and a half. This storm has a lot of ammo to burn.

The Sierra Avalanche Center, more to the north in California, offers its outlook for the near future, and the past 60 hours:

Snow showers should continue today as the last of this series of storm systems leaves the area. Snow accumulation should be much less intense today. The forecast calls for another 6 to 12 inches during the day....Tomorrow there should be a break in the storm before a weak system moves into the area on Tuesday....This storm deposited 46 to 54 inches of snow on the Sierra Crest and 50 to 60 inches in the Mount Rose area over the last 50 hours.

NOAA's Front Map from Jan 6

Welcome to the winter of dumping. You can see the front rolling on in and looking like it will be here for a little while longer still....

And, as with yesterday, some stats from ski resorts around the Westernmost States:

• Schweitzer (ID) Past 24-hour total: 4"
• Mount Baker (WA) Past 24-hour total: 7"
• Mount Bachelor (OR) Past 24-hour total: 12"
• Shasta Ski Park (N CA) Past 24-hour total: 6"
• Squaw (CA, Tahoe) Past 24-hour total: 14"
• Diamond Peak (NV, Tahoe) Past 24-hour total: 30"
• Sierra Summit (West Sierra) Past 24-hour total: 15"
• Mammoth Mountain (East Sierra) Past 24-hour total: 2 feet (??) (18" as reported by June Mountain)
• Snow Summit Past 24-hour total: 8"

Be safe out there. Here are some helpful sites for the above-average-powder-experience:

• http://www.treewelldeepsnowsafety.com/ - Don't get eaten by a tree well
• http://www.telemarktips.com/Lessons06_07Powder.html - How to ski powder on tele